Automobile Sector Analysis: Five Forces and SWOT

Automobile Sector Analysis: Five Forces and SWOT 1. Overview of the automobile sector Five forces analysis Competitive Rivalry between Existing Players: High Competition between existing automobile companies is high. Although the automobile market was dominated by the three big auto manufacturers in US, Toyota and Honda in Japan, the situation is changed. With the growing demand in emerging market, the emerging competitors in China and India may drive an intensified price competition. However, the competition could also focus on the safety, warranty and financial services etc. Threat of New Entrants: Medium Although the entrant barrier is high for the automobile industry because the requirement of capital and technology, an increasing number of automobile manufacturers are emerging in China and Asia due to the economic expansion and growing demand. However, these automakers are in the development status and may not catch up the leading technology in Japan and US, so the threat from new entrants is medium. Threats of Substitutes: Low Customers could choose to switch to transportation means other than automobile such as bicycles, buses and subways. However, the automobile is still the favourite despite the relevant high cost than other mentioned transportation means because its flexibility, comfort and convenience. Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Low In automobile industry, the component supplier has little bargaining power because the manufacturer could switch to other suppliers easily. On the other hand, the components are generally low value and the suppliers find it difficult to bargain with automakers. Bargaining Power of Customers: High The competition in the automobile industry is intense as mentioned above. So the customers have many choices on the brands and models. Customers care about the quality, price, safety, comfort, appearance of the car. Recently, customers are also more and more concerned about the environmental effect of the automobile and the energy efficiency. So the customers get more and more bargaining power in automobile industry. 2. Toyota Motor Company 2.1 Overview of the company Company profile Toyota Motor Corp. is one of the largest and leading automobiles manufacturers in the globe. It operates in three main business segments; the two biggest are automobile and financial services whereas the third one is comprised by many smaller other divisions. It is spread worldwide as it has 50 manufacturing facilities in 27 countries and regions Toyota designs, manufactures and sales passenger cars of several types and utilities, trucks, tractors and material handling equipment, minivans and other car accessories. Its products can be divided into 2 main categories, conventional and hybrid vehicles. The company sells its products under Toyota, Lexus, Hino and Daihatsu brands The company is also engaged in the financial industry as it provides financing to its customers and dealers. It is also involved in housing, marine, e-commercial, ITS and biotechnological activities. Toyota sells its vehicles in more than 170 countries and regions worldwide. Toyotas primary markets are Japan, North America, Europe and Asia. It is headquartered in Toyota City, Japan and employed around 316,121 people as on March 31, 2008 Strategy Analysis Toyotas strategy can be summarised under three key principles; growth, efficiency and stability. These are the three priorities the companys management will pursue to achieve future sustainable growth and increase the economic value. Growth will be achieved through continuous investment mainly in hybrid vehicle segment to meat the increasing demand. Efficiency is mainly focused on cost management and further reduction in order for the company to be able to provide high quality products in affordable prices and maintain its competitive advantages. Stability will be ensured by maintaining a solid financial base. Within the economic downturn it is important for Toyota to maintain sufficient liquidity in order to continue to finance its investments in research and development of new technologies, which is an integral and essential part of the companys advantages. Peer Group As Toyota operates in the global market its competitors come from all around the world. Its major competitors are BMW AG, DaimlerChrysler AG, Fiat S.p.A., Ford Motor Company, General Motors Corporation, Honda Motor Co. Ltd., PSA Peugeot, Renault S.A., Volkswagen AG and many others SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Strong overall financial performance Strong reputation and quality Strong position is Asian market Research and development Production pipeline system and cost management Diversified product portfolio Financial services are still undeveloped Huge expenses on pensions and post-retirement benefits Opportunities Threats Increasing demand for hybrid and environmental-friendly cars Expansion in emerging Asian markets Financial and other non-auto division development New car models Global economic crisis Strong competition in automotive industry Yen and US dollar exchange rates Tight environmental regulations on carbon emissions Problems with specific components of sold cars. (Recent brake problem) 2.1. Key Financials Analysis 31/3/2009 31/3/2008 31/3/2007 31/3/2006 31/3/2005 Sales 207,852.40 264,120.58 202,821.01 178,294.05 173,443.60 Operating Income -4,667.52 22,809.82 18,959.84 15,919.51 15,192.39 Net Income Available to Common -4,423.79 17,259.05 13,923.62 11,629.63 10,950.45 Total Assets 292,725.95 324,979.61 275,051.76 242,604.35 227,515.08 Total Liabilities 185,398.39 199,132.47 169,488.89 148,104.55 138,230.49 Common Equity 101,865.07 119,249.79 100,242.15 89,502.94 84,563.86 Net Cash Flow Operating Activities 14,724.7 26,357.6 27,783.5 22,136.2 22,144.6 * IMPORTANT First year to report losses * Stable increase in sales Decline in 2009 greatly affects income * Severe decrease in cash flow from operating activities, nearly 50% * Very big difference between sales and operating income points out severe cost expenses for the company. As this differences is constantly increasing it is not far from the truth to say that Toyota is gradually loosing its competitive advantages in cost efficiency against its competitors. * General trend in key financial s shows a steady and permanent increase until 2008 and a sharp decline in 2009, due to severe problems of economic recession and its great impact on automobiles industry. This trend applies for almost all financial s, pointing out that the companys performance as a whole followed a movement like this. 2.3. Multiples analysis 31/3/2009 31/3/2008 31/3/2007 31/3/2006 31/3/2005 Price To Earnings -22.43 9.19 14.74 15.25 11.23 Price To Book 0.97 1.32 2.04 1.97 1.44 Price To Cash Flow 7.41 4.83 7.83 7.80 5.87 Price To Sales 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 * Multiples follow companys general trend, namely increase until 2007 and then decreasing sharply * Consistent with overall picture of company, multiple analysis show the economic downturn of the entity from 2007 onwards * Point to mention: negative P/E ratio. Markets expectation about company looks really slim. The economic crisis, alongside with its severe problems generating income and its recently damaged reputation, create really unfortunate future prospects for Toyota. The negative P/E ratio and specifically its magnitude (-22) implies that nobody is neither willing to pay to buy the companys share nor expecting any profit generation. * Very sharp decline as well; 31.62 units is something extremely noticeable. If we focus on decline itself, it shows an extremely quick unfavorable turn of the market towards the company. 2.4. Companys performance 31/3/2009 31/3/2008 31/3/2007 31/3/2006 31/3/2005 Profitability Return on Equity -3.98 14.49 14.68 14.00 13.60 Operating Profit Margin -2.25 8.64 9.35 8.93 8.76 Asset Utilization Total Assets Turnover 0.71 0.81 0.74 0.73 0.76 Net Sales % Working Capital 28.93 180.70 1412.62 29.78 15.30 Gearing EBITDA / Interest Expense 20.94 86.19 77.33 153.70 146.20 Long Term Debt/ Common Equit 62.63 50.40 52.92 53.41 55.44 Valuation Investment Earnings Per Share -1.41 5.43 4.34 3.57 3.32 Dividend Yield Close 3.21 2.82 1.59 1.40 1.63 Liquidity Quick Ratio 0.81 0.77 0.76 0.81 0.87 Current Ratio 1.07 1.01 1.00 1.07 1.15 * Negative profitability in 2009 * Fluctuating sales/working capital as a result of fluctuation if investments (working capital) * Gearing increase in 2009 at the same time with high decrease of interest cover * Stable and quite low liquidity 2.5. Cash Flow analysis 31/3/2009 31/3/2008 31/3/2007 31/3/2006 31/3/2005 Cash Flow Operating Activities 14,724.7 26,357.6 27,783.5 22,136.2 22,144.6 Cash Flow Investing Activities (12,265.3) (34,254.0) (32,727.4) (29,704.4) (28,591.6) Cash Flow Financing Activities 6,967.4 6,242.7 7,565.6 7,716.8 3,917.0 Effect of exchange rates -1,294.04 -749.27 218.18 604.94 232.09 Net Cash Flow 8,132.86 -2,402.99 2,839.91 753.58 -2,297.85 * Severe decrease in cash flow from operating activities, nearly 50% which vividly affects its operating income * Extreme decrease in investing activities around 70%, probably caused by cash shortage and policy change. The company issued a new project with main goal to improve profits and cover operating expenses and as a result we see a large negative impact in new investments. * Financing activities exhibit a stationary trend over the past few years indicating the stable financial policy of the entity. * Adverse effects of exchange rates during the last two years indicating the risk the company runs because of the Yens depreciation to the U.S dollar and the Euro. 2.6. Stock Performance The companys share performance seems to move according to the index, with the trend to over perform it constantly. We can see the decline of the shares price, which started right before the end of 2008, following the global economic recession. At the turning point, which is in the beginning of 2009, we observe a relatively high trading volume, probably indicating the forthcoming upward movement. It is also really significant to point out the extreme high trading volume observed during the first months of 2010, followed by a new decline of the shares price. This reflects the problems that Toyota is facing nowadays. There is a considerable lack of trust from the market towards the company which is mainly caused by its severely damaged reputation and loss of quality. 3. Ford Motor Company 3.1 Overview of the company A . Company profile The group operates in two segments: Automotive and Financial Services. For the automotive segment which consists of Ford, Lincoln, Mercury and Volvo has a main operating activity in manufacturing, sale and service of component for cars and trucks. The Financial services segment is included of financing, insurance and leasing regarding to cars, trucks, industrial equipment, construction equipment and other activities. The company has operation in North America, South America, Europe, Africa and Asia- Pacific. B. Strategy Analysis  · One Ford The Company has initiated the new strategy called â€Å"One Ford† which has detail as follow: o ONE TEAM focuses the significant of team work in order to reach the automotive leadership. The measurement is satisfactory of business partners, employees, investors, and related companies. o ONE PLAN: The four-step plan has been established which composed of: balance between cost structure and revenue; develop new product follow customer preference; develop balance sheet status and finance the plan; and cooperation around the world to leverage companys resources. o ONE GOAL: That is â€Å"to create an exciting and viable company with profitable growth for all†. Ford has started the restructuring business process before the economic crisis which the Company has reduced the excess capacity, closed some unprofitable plants and lower excess workforce. In addition, Ford has improved the product line in term of higher quality, more safety, use less energy and more economic. * Affordable Fuel Economy: Focusing on deliver fuel efficiency engine to the market. For example, the 2010 Ford Fusion is now Americas most fuel efficient midsize sedan for both the hybrid and conventional gasoline models. * Electrification strategy: plan to bring pure batteryelectric vehicles, next-generation hybrids and a plug-in hybrid to market quickly and more affordably over the next four years. * Safety leadership: Ford got totaling 16 models picked from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety which more than other brands. * EcoBoostâ„ ¢ Engine: delivers significant gains in fuel economy along with a great performance drive feel. C. Peer Group Fords peer group is Daimler AG, Fiat Spa ¸ Honda Motor Company Limited, Motors Liquidation Company, Nissan Motor Company Limited, Toyota Motor Corp and Volkswagen AG. D. Fords SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses l Wide geographic Operate throughout the world and has a strong market in North America, Europe and Asia. Sales of each region of 2008 are 49%, 39% and 12% respectively. The well diversified market of ford reduces the risk of economic problem in specific area. l Brand royalty Ford has renowned reputation about quality and also owns other renowned brands such as Lincoln, Mercury and Volvo. l Quality car Ford owns totaling 16 models of car that rated as safety car by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety l Product Recall Experienced many recalled products due to the quality of defective cruise control switch which may cause fire. Even though there is no fire cases reported but the Companys reputation is negative affected. l Negative operating result l Low gross margin GSKs long-term debt increased by 115.5% in 2008, which may lead to problems such as heavy interest payment, risk of having too little working capital and even increasing possibilities of bankruptcy. l Too much long-term debt This may lead to problems such as heavy interest payment, risk of having too little working capital and even increasing possibilities of bankruptcy. Opportunities Threats l Expanding market in emerging market Ford has a plan to expand its sale in the emerging market which has great buying power in the future. l Eco-friendly engine Ford has high reputation in the eco-friendly engine such as hybrid engine which has very promising market. l Fuel efficiency Ford found another opportunity in the market for fuel-efficient in small and middle car. l High competition Due to new competitor, lower demand and excess capacity. l Economic crisis Economic crisis and regression in USA where is the main market of Ford caused severe effect to the Company. 3.2. Key Financial Analysis Source: ThomsonFinancial Scaling Factor : 1,000,000 USD Currency: USD 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05 12/31/04 Net Sales or Revenues 146,277.00 172,455.00 160,123.00 177,089.00 171,652.00 Operating Income 3,518.00 8,031.00 -8,167.00 7,010.00 10,681.00 Earnings Before Interest And Taxes (EBIT) -4,885.00 6,792.00 -6,689.00 9,354.00 11,669.00 Interest Expense On Debt 9,682.00 10,927.00 8,783.00 7,643.00 7,071.00 Net Income Available to Common -14,681.00 -2,764.00 -12,615.00 2,441.00 3,634.00 Total Assets 215,773.00 276,459.00 275,337.00 264,891.00 294,447.00 ST Debt Current Portion of LT Debt 63,972.00 61,052.00 62,456.00 59,904.00 66,433.00 Long Term Debt 90,716.00 107,478.00 109,593.00 94,428.00 106,540.00 Total Liabilities 231,889.00 269,410.00 277,643.00 250,812.00 277,525.00 Common Equity -17,311.00 5,628.00 -3,465.00 12,957.00 16,045.00  · Net sales decreased from 2007 about 15% as the economic crisis in the State which is the main market of Ford. The Company has had substantial losses from operation since 2006.  · Ford has high outstanding of long-term loan which may causes liquidity deficiency or bankruptcy if the Company still has continuously loss in the future.  · As a result of net losses from operation since 2006, Ford has had negative shareholders equity since then. 3.3. Multiples Analysis MONTHLY HISTORICAL MARKET PRICES Y2008 Y2007 Y2006 Y2005 Y2004 January 6.64 8.13 8.58 13.17 14.54 February 6.53 7.91 7.97 12.65 13.75 March 5.72 7.89 7.96 11.33 13.57 April 8.26 8.04 6.95 9.11 15.36 May 6.80 8.34 7.16 9.98 14.85 June 4.81 9.42 6.93 10.24 15.65 July 4.80 8.51 6.67 10.74 14.72 August 4.46 7.81 8.37 9.97 14.11 September 5.20 8.49 8.09 9.86 14.05 October 2.19 8.87 8.28 8.32 13.03 November 2.69 7.51 8.13 8.13 14.18 December 2.29 6.73 7.51 7.72 14.64 . 5 Year 5 Year VALUATION Y2008 Y2007 Y2006 Y2005 Y2004 Y2003 Growth Rate Average P/E Ratio (High) -1.36 -6.93 -1.41 12.94 9.63 34.66 -1.04 2.57 P/E Ratio (Low) -0.16 -4.75 -0.90 6.64 7.01 13.16 -1.01 P/E Ratio (Close) -0.35 -4.81 -1.12 6.77 8.13 32.00 -1.01 1.73 Price/Sales 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.18 0.18 -0.80 0.10 Price/Book Value -0.32 2.62 -4.14 1.14 1.74 2.62 -3.94 0.21 Price/Cash Flow 0.44 1.24 1.76 0.70 1.11 1.35 -0.67 1.05 Price/Working Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 7.78 TARenderChart.png * P/E ratio turned to be negative since net losses from operation since 2006 and also the market price has continuously decreased from 8.58 in the beginning of 2006 to 2.29 at the end of 2008. * P/B ratio had negative value in 2008 from the negative book value of Ford. 3.4. Companys performance Worldscope Currency: USD PROFITABILITY RATIOS 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05 12/31/04 Return On Invested Capital 0.25 1.92 1.95 2.95 3.32 Operating Profit Margin 2.43 2.94 3.12 5.02 6.54 ASSETS UTILIZATION RATIOS Asset Turnover 0.63 0.60 0.59 0.59 0.58 Net Sales Pct Working Capital 10.62 6.21 5.68 11.06 41.64 LEVERAGE RATIOS EBITDA / Interest Expense -0.50 0.62 -0.76 1.22 1.65 LT Debt Pct Common Equity -76.88 233.49 316.38 1,268.12 1,229.66 LIQUIDITY RATIOS Quick Ratio 1.05 1.08 1.12 1.08 1.03 Current Ratio 1.21 1.25 1.30 1.25 1.19  · Profitability ratios do not show the good performance as Ford has had net loss from operation since 2006.  · Leverage ratios also go in the same trends as a result of negative equity and high outstanding balance of long-term loan.  · Liquidity ratios present that Ford still can generate cash to supply its working capital but if consider to the long-term debts Ford may cannot provide enough cash to support its debt payment since these ratios are still in the low range compared with its debt outstanding amount. 3.5. Cash flow analysis Source: ThomsonFinancial Scaling Factor : 1,000,000 USD Currency: USD 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05 12/31/04 Net Cash Flow From Operating Activities -179.00 17,074.00 9,609.00 21,674.00 22,591.00 Net Cash Flow From Investing Activities 3,143.00 6,457.00 24,862.00 -7,462.00 8,567.00 Long Term Borrowings 42,163.00 33,113.00 58,258.00 24,559.00 22,223.00 Inc(Dec) In ST Borrowings -5,120.00 919.00 -5,825.00 -8,591.00 4,937.00 Reduction In Long Term Debt 46,299.00 39,431.00 36,601.00 36,080.00 36,021.00 Net Cash Flow From Financing Activities -9,104.00 -5,242.00 15,273.00 -20,651.00 -14,226.00  · The Company cannot generated sufficient cash from operation and had negative net cash flow from operation. Moreover the Company had to pay interest expenses for loans and had high net cash paid for financing activity. 3.6. Stock market performance  · Ford shares have been traded lower than SP500 since 2001 until 2010. Especially since 2006 that the operating results had continuous substantial losses. 4. Honda Motor Company Limited 4.1. Introduction Honda Motor is one of leading automobile manufacturers in the world. The company develops, manufactures and markets automobiles, motorcycles and power products. The company also provides financing services to the dealer and customer for the sale of products. Honda has global operations in areas including North, South and Central America, Asia, Middle East, and Europe with its headquarter at Tokyo in Japan. Strategy analysis Honda Motor has three strategies. They are â€Å"Staying Close to Customers†, â€Å"glocalization† and â€Å"five region strategy†. Staying close to customers mean the maintenance of the qualities of a small company, Provide value product with flexibility and efficiency as a small company does and maintain global reach and technology advantage as a large company does is the drive to the future growth of Honda. Glocalization means the effort to launch subsidiaries in regions that could best meet the demand of local customers and expand the subsidiaries as the local demand increases. Five region strategy requires the operations focus on five areas the world. They are North America, South America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, Asia/Oceania and Japan. The management decisions are served to suit the situation in different areas. The advanced RD capacity equips the Honda to provide flexible products to adjust the need of these regions. Business activities The company operates through four business segments: the automobile business, motorcycle business, financial services, and power products. The automobiles business division manufactures passenger cars, multi-wagons, minivans, port utility vehicle, sports coupe and mini vehicles. Hondas automobiles use gasoline engines of three, four or six-cylinder, diesel engines and gasoline-electric hybrid systems. Honda also offers alternative fuel-powered vehicles such as natural gas, ethanol, and fuel cell vehicles. In 2008, the company sold 3,925,000 units of automobiles. The motorcycle business produces a range of motorcycles, including scooters, electric-motor-assisted bicycles, sports bikes and large touring cycles. Hondas motorcycles use gasoline engines developed by Honda that are air or water cooled, two or four cycled, and single, two, four or six cylinder. In 2008, the company sold a total of 9,320,000 units of motorcycles. Honda offers a variety of financial services to its customers and dealers through its widespread finance subsidiaries. Hondas power products manufactures a variety of power products including power tillers, portable generators, general purpose engines, grass cutters, outboard engines, water pumps, snow throwers, power carriers, power sprayers, lawn mowers and lawn tractors (riding lawn mowers). Honda also manufactures the major components and parts used in its products, including engines, frames and transmissions. Peer Group The globalization of the Honda motor makes it face the global intense competition. The competitors include Ford Motor, Nissan Motor, Toyota Motor, Volkswagen etc.(in the automobile sector) and Yamaha Motor, Harley-Davidson etc.(in the motor vehicle industry). SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses l Global diversification The company operates a total of 397 subsidiaries, and 104 affiliates all over the world. l Leading market position and good brand image Honda is one of the largest vehicle and motorcycle manufacturers over the world with strong brand strength. l Strong Research and Development capacity The large investment in RD could equip Honda the capability to differentiate itself in the intense competitive market. l Declining Market Share in Sector Evident of decline in unit sales and lost of market shares in the automobile industry. l Low employee productivity Honda has a weak proportion on the number of employees and the revenues. Opportunities Threats l Growing demand in Asian market Honda has taken measures to occupy the huge potential Asian market. l Growing demand in hybrid electric vehicles The companys emphasis on hybrid technology innovation will capture market trends as an opportunity to enhance its market share. l Global competition The competition would result in price pressure and thus reduce the profitability. l Tightening emission regulations The emission standards will cause Honda to occur more costs in product development, testing and manufacturing process design. 4.2. Key Financials Analysis Source: ThomsonFinancial Currency: JPY Scaling Factor : 1000000 JPY 31/3/2009 31/3/2008 31/3/2007 31/3/2006 31/3/2005 Sales 10,011,241.00 12,002,834.00 11,087,140.00 9,907,996.00 8,650,105.00 Operating Income 189,643.00 953,109.00 851,879.00 730,889.00 630,920.00 Net Income Available to Common 137,005.00 600,039.00 592,322.00 597,033.00 486,197.00 Total Assets 11,579,494.00 12,439,610.00 11,964,917.00 10,533,995.00 9,187,808.00 Total Liabilities 7,449,150.00 7,753,539.00 7,359,399.00 6,320,785.00 5,828,513.00 Common Equity 4,007,288.00 4,544,265.00 4,482,611.00 4,125,750.00 3,289,294.00 Net Cash Flow Operating Activities 383641 1126918 904525 576557 746624 l The operating income reduces dramatically, approximately 80% from the previous years result. This result is caused by the severe decline in the sales and the consequently increase in inventory cost. l Before 2009, all the s are in a healthy and steady upward trend. But in the fiscal year ended at 31st march 2009, the volumes all experienced a dramatic decline. They are caused by the sales plunge. l The declines trends are due to the economic recession caused by the financial crisis because the demand in Japan, US and Europe shrank. The automobile industry faces a severe challenge and most companies in the sector reported unsatisfactory results. 4.3. Multiple analysis 31/3/2009 31/3/2008 31/3/2007 31/3/2006 31/3/2005 Price To Earnings 30.7 8.6 10.3 Price To Book 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.5 Price To Cash Flow 4.6 4.2 6.8 Price To Sales 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 l Although the P/E ratio increases significantly, its not a good sign. The increase in P/E ratio is not due to the high expectation of the investors and the fundamentals such as growth opportunities. Instead, the soaring P/E is the result of the plummeting earnings to common shareholders. l The price to book ratio and price to sales declined in 2008 and 2009, indicating the declining